Screening
Is a Korean comprehensive health checkup worth having?
A checkup is a bundle, not a test. Korea's own national programme contains one test that lowers cancer death, one that does nothing, and one that produced the largest overdiagnosis epidemic ever recorded.
By James Choi
Reporter
- Published
- Reading time
- 9 minutes
Answer
A Korean comprehensive health checkup is a bundle of separate tests whose evidence differs test by test: within Korea's own national programme, upper endoscopy is associated with roughly half the odds of dying from gastric cancer while the upper gastrointestinal series shows no association at all, randomised trials of general health checks as a whole find no reduction in total mortality (risk ratio 1.00, 95 percent confidence interval 0.97 to 1.03), and the thyroid ultrasound commonly bundled in is the test that produced the world's largest cancer overdiagnosis epidemic — so the answerable question is not whether to have a checkup but which tests are in it.
Key takeaways
- A Cochrane review of 17 randomised trials covering 251,891 participants found general health checks had no effect on total mortality (risk ratio 1.00, 95 percent confidence interval 0.97 to 1.03) or cancer mortality (1.01, 0.92 to 1.12), both high-certainty evidence.
- Within Korea's National Cancer Screening Program, upper endoscopy was associated with an odds ratio of 0.53 for dying of gastric cancer, while the upper gastrointestinal series in the same programme gave 0.98 — no association at all.
- Korea's thyroid ultrasound screening produced a 6.4-fold rise in diagnoses with unchanged mortality, and over 85 percent of cases in Korean women are estimated to be overdiagnosed.
- Across 190 comprehensive checkup programmes at ten Seoul university hospitals, cost correlated with radiation dose at r = 0.812: the intensive disease-specific programme averaged 3.62 mSv and the overnight premium programme 24.08 mSv.
- The defensible question is not whether to have a checkup but which tests are in the package, because the same programme can contain a test that lowers mortality, a test that does nothing, and a test that causes net harm.
Asked in English, this question is answered almost entirely by the companies selling the checkups. Their answer is that Korean screening is thorough, uses excellent equipment, and costs a fraction of the American price. All three are true. None of them is an answer to whether the tests find anything worth finding.
The evidence does answer it, and the answer is neither yes nor no. It is that a comprehensive checkup is not a test at all. It is a bundle of tests sold as one product, and the bundle is not uniform.
Checkups as a whole have not lowered mortality
This has been tested directly. A Cochrane review pooled randomised trials that offered adults a general health check — screening for more than one disease across more than one organ system, in people not selected for being at risk — against no health check.
RR 1.00
Cancer mortality was 1.01 (0.92 to 1.12) and cardiovascular mortality 1.05 (0.94 to 1.16). The review's stated conclusion is that general health checks are unlikely to be beneficial. That is an unusually flat result for a question this large, and it is the finding the packages are sold against.
Inside Korea's own programme, one test works and another does not
The Korean National Cancer Screening Program has offered gastric cancer screening to everyone aged 40 and over since 1999, by either upper endoscopy or an upper gastrointestinal series. A nested case-control study drew on a cancer-free cohort of 16,584,283 people, comparing 54,418 who died of gastric cancer against 217,672 matched controls.
| Screening received | Odds ratio | 95% CI |
|---|---|---|
| Any screening | 0.79 | 0.77–0.81 |
| Upper endoscopy | 0.53 | 0.51–0.56 |
| Upper GI series | 0.98 | 0.95–1.01 |
| Endoscopy, once | 0.60 | 0.57–0.63 |
| Endoscopy, twice | 0.32 | 0.28–0.37 |
| Endoscopy, three or more times | 0.19 | 0.14–0.26 |
Two tests, one programme, one population, one outcome. Endoscopy roughly halves the odds of dying of gastric cancer, and does more the more often it is repeated, which is the dose-response pattern expected of something that genuinely works. The barium series does nothing measurable at all.
This is the strongest argument for Korean screening that exists, and it is a specific one. It is an argument for endoscopy in a country with high gastric cancer incidence. It is not an argument for the package that endoscopy arrives in.
And one test in the bundle causes net harm
Thyroid ultrasound is routinely added to Korean checkups, often for a small extra fee. Korean thyroid cancer incidence rose 6.4-fold between 1999 and 2008, with 94.4 percent of the increase being tumours under 20 mm. Mortality did not move. A 63-country analysis estimated that over 85 percent of thyroid cancer cases in Korean women were attributable to overdiagnosis, the highest share in the world.
Overdiagnosis is not a near miss. It means people who would never have become ill were given a cancer diagnosis, and many of them a thyroidectomy, its complication risk, and lifelong medication. What that surgery costs is covered separately by this publication.
What the premium package is actually selling
A radiologist reviewed the 190 comprehensive examination programmes advertised by ten university hospitals in Seoul. Of those, 132 — 69.5 percent — included CT, averaging 1.4 scans, and only the basic studies in each programme were counted.
| Programme | Effective dose |
|---|---|
| Intensive, specific diseases | 3.62 mSv |
| Intensive, cancer | 11.12 mSv |
| Premium | 18.14 mSv |
| Overnight | 24.08 mSv |
r = 0.812
The upgrade being paid for is largely more imaging, and more imaging is more radiation. That is not a hidden cost so much as an unstated one: the premium tier's distinguishing feature is the thing a person would want less of, all else being equal.
The cost that does not appear on the invoice
Scanning a well person finds things. A German population cohort gave whole-body MRI to 3,371 of its 6,753 participants and disclosed what it found. Biopsies across the cohort rose from 6.9 to 9.9 per 100 observation-years.
- Non-malignant biopsy results rose by a rate ratio of 1.39 (1.22 to 1.58) among people who had findings disclosed, against 1.09 (0.85 to 1.38) among those who did not.
- Malignant results also rose, by 1.74 (1.27 to 2.42), on a far smaller base.
- The authors concluded that most biopsies found nothing and few cancers were diagnosed, indicating overtesting and overdiagnosis.
The checkup's price is what the checkup costs. The biopsies, the repeat scans, the follow-up appointments and the months of not knowing are paid separately, by whoever the scan happened to alarm.
Why Korea scans as much as it does
An experimental vignette survey of 1,229 Koreans asked whether they would want an MRI for uncomplicated headache or non-specific low back pain, situations in which imaging is not indicated. Before any reduction in out-of-pocket cost, between 30 and 50 percent said yes, depending on income and complaint. After a reduction, 78 to 98 percent did, across every income quintile.
Demand for scanning in Korea tracks price rather than indication. That is not a criticism of patients; it is what happens when a test is cheap, available, and framed as prudence. It is also why the sellers' strongest argument — that this is inexpensive — is the part of their case that should give the most pause.
What this does not say
- It does not say to skip screening. Korea's endoscopy result is among the strongest in cancer screening anywhere, and the national programme's targeted components are not what the Cochrane review was testing.
- The Cochrane result concerns general health checks in adults unselected for risk. It says nothing about someone with symptoms, a family history, or an established condition.
- The Korean endoscopy study is observational. Nested case-control designs can be affected by who chooses to be screened, and the authors adjusted for what was recorded rather than for everything that matters.
- The radiation survey read published programme descriptions from ten Seoul hospitals in 2016 and counted only each programme's basic studies. Doses elsewhere, and today, may differ.
- The incidental-findings cohort used whole-body MRI in Germany, which is neither the same test nor the same population as a Korean checkup. It is evidence that scanning well people triggers procedures, not a measurement of how often a Korean checkup does.
- None of this prices the reassurance of a normal result, which is what many people are buying and which no trial has measured well.
The defensible summary is that the checkup is the wrong unit to evaluate. Ask what is in the package and what each thing in it is known to do, because the same national programme has produced one of screening's clearest successes and one of its clearest failures, and they are sold to the same person on the same morning.
Sources
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Jun JK, Choi KS, Lee HY, Suh M, Park B, Song SH, et al.
Effectiveness of the Korean National Cancer Screening Program in Reducing Gastric Cancer MortalityGastroenterology 2017;152(6):1319-1328.e7
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Park S, Oh CM, Cho H, Lee JY, Jung KW, Jun JK, et al.
Association between screening and the thyroid cancer "epidemic" in South Korea: evidence from a nationwide studyBMJ 2016;355:i5745
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Level of radiation dose in university hospital noninsured private health screening programs in KoreaEnvironmental Health and Toxicology 2016;31:e2016007
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